Charles on… anything that comes along

OK, so according to March 29th’s Apple Insider, the latest developer release of Tiger (OSX 10.4) is “deemed a final candidate.”*

But how close does that mean the real thing is?

I’d say it’s rather further off than mid-April. Here’s why.

Let’s look back at Panther, aka 10.3 - that version that most Apple users are now on.

Back in 2003, on September 8 Apple Insider said that Panther version 7b59 was “nearer final candidate”.

Then on October 1, Macrumors’s forums noted that “there are rumblings that Panther is quickly approaching Final Candidate status”, noting that it was up to build 7b83/85.

On October 8, Apple announced that Panther was ready, and would ship on October 24.

On October 14, build 7b85 was released to developers - at that time, a sure sign it was the final thing.

And on October 24, the product itself hit the shelves - and was rapidly snapped up.

So anyway, that’s four weeks from the first mention of “final candidate” to the official announcement, and two more to getting your hands on the thing. So if we take Apple Insider’s March 29 item as correct (which you might or might not), then we should expect an announcement around the end of April, and product a couple of weeks later.

That’s my analysis. I’m pretty happy with it; it ties in with other stuff I’ve noticed here and there which I’m not discussing, and which is far from definitive. Let’s see how I do, hmm?

*in case you didn’t know how the development process works: big products like this go through many internal betas, then reach “final candidate” (there can be many), and then “Golden Master” - which gets pressed and shipped.

Update April 1: OK, as comments have noted, Apple Insider says Tiger is now GM with build 8a428, adding “Some retailers, including Amazon, which is offering a $35 mail-in rebate, have already begun taking pre-orders of Mac OS X Tiger, indicating that they expect to thip [sic] the product within 30 days.”

But if you look at the timing above, even if Tiger is now GM, there could easily be another week before it’s announced, and 24 days before it appears on shelves. I’m not unsettled from my prediction. Yet.

These posts might be related (the database thinks..):
• Apple's Tiger debuts April 29: was I close enough? (12 April 2005; score: 156.78%)
• And since everyone else is saying it... here's my "Apple on Intel" story. From April 2000 (6 June 2005; score: 64.95%)
• Get it while it's late: my exclusive review of Tiger (you know.. that new software thing) (2 May 2005; score: 52.87%)